Austin Real Estate Statistics for September

The statistics are for September for the Austin real estate market. The statistics are a little weird this month. First let's look at the general stats.

The line we obviously want to pay attention to the most is the last one September 2008. First the total number of sales was 1670. This is down from 1942 last month. As we move into the winter this is pretty typical. Compared to last year sales are down 8 percent. At first this looks pretty good considering for the last several months we have been seeing a year over year decrease over 20%. But before we get too excited last year at this time was when the market first started to slow down. So we are basically comparing a slow market this year to a market that was in the middle of slowing down last year. Another interesting statistic is to look at sales for September for the last 3 years.
September 2006 2341
September 2007 1816
September 2006 1670
So from September 2006 when the market was pretty strong we are seeing a significant drop in sales (29%). Now that seems to fly in the face of the numerous news reports we have seen showing that Austin is one of the strongest real estate markets. First off that is more a sign of the weakness of the rest of country than the relative strength of the Austin real estate market. Also it's because Austin and Texas in general is considered to be in a better position than most markets because we didn't see large price increases over the last 8 years.
Ok let's keep moving through the stats. The average price is down 4 percent compared to last year. The Statesman made a big deal of this saying it's the first time Austin saw a drop in median prices in the last few years. The only issue here is that prices have down for quite some time. As we have discussed here before the reason it appeared that average prices were going up was because lowered priced homes were not selling as frequently because banks go rid of sub prime and no doc loans. The fact that lowered prices homes were not selling artificially increased average prices. So basically prices have been down for awhile.
Still I find it interesting that sales and prices are both down compared to last year. Basically the market slowed down very rapidly this time last year. Then it seemed the market held steady at the new slower pace. But looking at these numbers it seems like the market has slowed down a little over the last year.
Ok lets look at inventory we have 10,217 on the market. This is an increase of 2 percent compared to last year. Again this is much better than the 20 percent year to year increases in inventory we have been seeing but it's because this time last year was when the market started to slow down.
So what factors are currently weighing on the Austin real estate market? First the stock market is obviously hurting the market. Although it's not directly affecting Austin it's basically freaking people out. As a side note it's really hurting the economy in New York City due to the massive layoffs that are occurring in the financial industry. Anyway the stock market is certainly slowing down activity. In fact on days when the market plummets we get canceled appointments and talking to realtors around the country they are experiencing the same thing. Additionally the sour loan market is weighing on the market. Basically if someone can't get a loan they generally can't buy a house.
The government of course is doing whatever they can to stimulate the mortgage markets. And after the takeover of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae they have the ability to have more direct control over the mortgage market. We can expect that the government will do it what it can to make it easier to get a loan which should help the market. In addition, they recently passed a 5,000 tax credit for first time home buyers. This should provide a boost to the market. The Fed is also expected to cut rates this week bringing the fed rate to lowest point it has been in 4 years. And of course the 700 bailout for banks which is intended to influence banks to start lending. The question is whether the government's attempt to help the market will work.
So what is my advice for buyers looking for homes in the current market? I realize appreciation is not the only concern when buying a house but we are still seeing central Austin outperforming the suburbs. Also please ignore list price. I talk to so many people that think they are only getting a good deal if they buy 20% under list. Sometimes if you buy 20% under list you are getting a bad deal and sometimes if you buy above list you are getting a good deal. Buying for X percent under list doesn't mean anything (besides maybe talking about it at the water cooler the next day at work). In fact we put in an offer for a property yesterday (for us personally) at above list price. It's always better to get a good deal than simply get a property for under list.
Prices are down but loans are also harder to get. So while credit scores were less important 2 years ago they are important today. This means two basic things. It's a good idea to check credit scores early on in the home buying process and get rid of any issues that might be dragging it down. By boosting your credit score you have a better chance of getting a loan with a lower interest rate. The same can be said of down payments.
The more you can put down the better. Right now banks greatly prefer loans with higher down payments. And the days of 0 percent down payments are pretty much dead. So it's a good idea to save as much as possible. Also if you plan on getting a car and a house I would get the house first.
Lastly if you are getting a loan I would check mortgage rates somewhat frequently. Basically we are seeing a lot of flux with mortgage rates over the last few weeks. So if you lock in at say 6.25 it's probably worth it to check rates again in a week and see if you can relock at the lower rate. Just keep in mind once you get close to closing date you can't relock.
Moving on lets look at different segments of the market.


The year to date stats (the first graph) show us what we have seen before. The multifamily, lot, commercial and condo market is doing much worse than the residential market. I found the snapshot for September (the second chart a little more interesting. Basically compared to September 2007 sales for the single family market are down 8 percent but commercial sales are down 33%. Initially when the market slowed down last year the commercial market held up. In fact some commercial agents proclaimed that the commercial market would not be affected by the sub prime crisis but since then we have seen commercial market slow down quite a bit. We are also seeing a very weak multifamily market.
Below are the stats for the central Austin real estate market. We also have stats for the other mls areas
10N - 8E, 8W - HH, HS-HW, OT-WW

As always if you have any questions about the market in general or a particular property feel free to contact us. Also if you want to search properties currently for sale here is our Search for Austin Area Homes.























