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The Summer is Over - Where Does the Austin Texas Real Estate Market Stand

So the Austin Market so far this year has been more or less on fire. We went from an extremely slow market to a rather heated market. Most analysis of the market has been comparing year over year. So comparing August of this year to August of last year. I find this analysis somewhat uninteresting. Why? We know the market is moving faster than last year. In fact if the market started to cool we would still be outpacing the sales numbers from last year for several months. My question is whether the market is heating up or slowing down month to month. So how does the market of today compare to a few months ago.

In order to do this I compare the rate of change from say July to August compared to the typical rate of change over the last 10 years. First lets look at Sales.

Sales
MonthHistorical AverageAverage Change2012 Change
Jan1,143.400.72 0.67
Feb1,339.201.18 1.22
Mar1,758.801.32 1.45
Apr1,841.301.06 1.03
May2,043.701.11 1.20
Jun2,224.801.09 1.10
Jul 2,094.400.94 0.90
Aug 2,084.700.99 1.04
Sep1,762.700.85 x
Oct1,592.100.91 x
Nov 1,445.700.91 x
Dec 1,603.101.13 x

Generally we don't see much of a change in Sales from July to August. Over the last 10 years on average we have seen a decline of 1%. This year we saw an increase of 4% moving from July to August. But last month we saw the opposite. The number of sales dropped a little more than what is typical.

So in essence the Austin market got pretty hot earlier in the year. Over the last few months the market is not getting hotter or cooler. Its basically maintaining the same level level.

Another data point we like to look is pending sales. These are homes that have accepted contracts but are waiting to close. This is somewhat seen as a future indicator.

Basically for the last two months we are seeing patterns that are almost identical to the change we usually see going from June to July and going from July to August.

















Pending Sales
MonthHistorical Average Average Change2012 Change
Jan1,623.901.301.33
Feb1,734.501.071.18
Mar 2,186.101.261.21
Apr 2,302.501.051.06
May2,252.300.991.05
Jun2,239.701.000.94
Jul2,154.300.970.95
Aug2,036.900.950.96
Sep1,701.500.85x
Oct1,646.600.96x
Nov1,475.400.93x
Dec1,290.500.88x


So in summary the market started hot at the beginning of the summer. Over the last few months the market has not gotten hotter or colder.

Moving forward we expect the market to cool as we move into winter (this is very very typical). We then usually see a spike in January so it will be interesting how the January Bouce compares to the last several years.


As always if you have any specific questions about the market feel free to contact me. You can use our search for Homes in the Austin MLS. If you are looking for a knowledgeable realtor in Austin you can contact me here.

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